Monday, September 28, 2009

Pay No Attention to Public Opinion Polls

Public opinion polls are misleading, they become the focus of the news—rather than the issues--, and, polls suggest that what’s popular is what ought to be.

Polls mislead. Take this most common example. “Do you approve of the job the President is doing?” What does this actually measure? If the number is low, does that mean a progressive President is being “too progressive”? Absolutely not. But, on the face of it, that’s what it suggests. One could easily disapprove of the President because he’s not, in their estimation, being progressive enough. Yet, we tend to assume that disapproval ratings mean that a Democrat is being “too far left” and a Republican is being “too far right.” I suspect dips in Obama’s current ratings are for both reasons, although the media (you know, the “liberal” media) treat the poll as if Obama is being too liberal.

Likewise, I’ve seen polls that ask, “Do you agree with Obama’s/Baucus’/Democrats, etc. health care reform?” If I answer “No,” then what am I really saying? The poll does not measure what we might think. I could disagree for any number of reasons, most of which give a false impression. I know dozens of people who would answer “no” to that question because they are in favor of a single payer system that abolishes private health insurance altogether. I know other people who want no reform at all, and many of them have different reasons for that position. So, oddly, all of these groups would be shown to agree (about something)—even though they are on opposite sides of the political spectrum—if they answered this poll. Yet, the headline in a newspaper or blog would read something like, “58% say they disagree with Obama’s health care reform.” See the problem with that? What does that sound like? Most would interpret it as opposition to health care reform, but it’s not.

Second, the media treat polls as if they are newsworthy. In fact, they report more on polls than on virtually anything else. This is called “horserace journalism.” It means the media focus on who, or which side, is allegedly “winning” a given debate, rather than on any actual substance. Rather than debating the merits of any particular idea, working with the same example from above, polls ask, “Are you in favor of health care reform”? Then, if the numbers are high, we conclude that Obama is “winning.” If they’re low, we assume people want no reform and the media conclude that Obama is “failing.” Every day, we have a different winner. It’s silly, of course, but the media need something to talk about on slow days, right? This is all very superficial, and does not help us solve problems. Indeed, it may even give a completely opposite picture.

Moreso, news anchors and commentators treat polling data as if it is fact. They are opinion, and, as I’ve already shown, they are not even accurate gauges of public opinion. The way the media treat polls as fact is by constantly citing them as “evidence” of what to do or what not to do, or as some kind of proof that something will or will not happen. Republican spin doctors, for example, appear on cable news and proclaim that health care reform will not pass because a slight majority apparently “oppose” reform. It’s all quite humorous if we realize that reform is a slow process and the polls change every single day along with the weather.

Finally, popular support does not mean it’s the right—or the best—thing to do. Using public opinion as a reason to do or not to do something is a weak form of reasoning known as “argumentum ad populum.” It’s the classic scenario where your mother asks you if you’d jump off the bridge if Johnny did it. You know the rest. Our founding fathers knew that might does not make right, which is why there are so many checks and balances to negate potential majority rulings. Merely because—allegedly—a narrow majority of United States citizens “oppose” health care reform does not mean we should do nothing.

If we operated this way as a nation—according to polls—then we would not have fought the Revolutionary War, abolished slavery, allowed women to vote, or eliminated segregation. Those were not “popular” causes. (Yes, many women were against giving women the right to vote; on simple numbers, if polled, it’s doubtful a majority of the nation would have agreed to the statement, “Women should be granted the right to vote.”)

Ignore polls. The future of our country, and important policy matters, should not be influenced so heavily, if at all, by “public opinion.” That may sound undemocratic, but polls are not the way to attempt to solve problems. Especially with so much misinformation and misunderstanding out there, do we really want the fate of health care reform (or any matter of policy) to be determined by a few polls that asked a few thousand people a question they may or may not have really understood?

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